Unexploitable Shoves

A Lesson On: Unexploitable Shoves

What is an unexploitable shove?

An unexploitable shove is a situation in which it is +EV to shove no matter what your opponents calling range is.
The reason it doesn't matter is because in theory, even if you were to open your cards face up, and your opponents would ONLY call with a PERFECT range (any hand with = or > value than yours), you would still mathematically be making money on average every single time you do it.
With that being said, your opponents will not always call you with a perfect range, so ANYTIME they call you are making money!
You're making money because the equity you win while stealing the blinds is a higher value than the equity you lose when called.

So If:
+E = the equity won by stealing
-E = the equity lost when called,

+E-(-E) = >0

= +EV

Example:

Say we have

in the CO.

Blinds: 100/200/25
Our stack: 3000
Everyone else has us covered.

In the pot we have: 300 (blinds) + 225 (antes) = 525 total chips.

For the sake of this example, let's assume that only one person will call us.

For QKs, the opponents' optimal calling range is [22+,A2s+,KQs,A2o+,KQo] which =21.6% of hands (just pokerstove it).

Because we have 3 opponents to get through, we multiply their calling range by 3. 21.6*3 = ~65%.

65% of the time we will be called and our KQs will square off against another hand. According to Pokerstove, QKs has ~43% equity VS the given calling range.

When we're called, the pot will be ~6500 chips.

6500*(0.43) = 2795. Our starting stack was 3000. This means when called we will lose on average 205 chips (-205 chip equity)

But 35% of the times we will steal the blinds and antes (525). 525*(0.35) = 183.75.

Our overall equasion = (.65 * -205) + (.35 * 525) = 50.5 (<---- chip equity)

Therefore we're winning approximately 50 chips every time we make this exact move and opponents call optimally. Luckily for us, they will constantly make mistakes and our chip equity will increase even more for this particular play. Try not to miss sitations where you can make an unexploitable shove!! When looking through your hand histories, run the math in simmilar situations and see what you come up with. If you fold in that spot every time, you give up significant value in your hands!! Feedback welcomed and encouraged.